Analogical Predictions

Romeyn, Jan Willem (2003) Analogical Predictions. In: Pre-Proceedings of the 26th International Wittgenstein Symposium. Austrian Ludwig Wittgenstein Society, Kirchberg am Wechsel, pp. 298-301.


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This paper deals with exchangeable analogical predictions, and proposes a Bayesian model for such predictions. The paper first discerns two kinds of analogical predictions, based on similarity of individuals and of types respectively. It then introduces a Bayesian framework that employs hypotheses for making predictions. This framework is used to describe predictions based on the similarity of individuals, and further relates exchangeable predictions with a specific partition of hypotheses on types. Exchangeable predictions based on type similarity are determined by prior probabilities over the partition, but the partition obstructs the control over the similarity relations. Finally the paper develops a model for exchangeable predictions based on type similarity, which employs hypotheses on similarity between individuals, thereby offering a better control over the similarity relations.

Item Type: Book Section
Uncontrolled Keywords: Type similarity model; Bayesian framework; Carnap, R.
Subjects: Philosophie > Philosophische Journale, Kongresse, Vereinigungen > Wittgenstein Symposium Kirchberg, Pre-Proceedings > Kirchberg 2003
Philosophie > Philosophische Disziplinen > Logik, analytische Philosophie
Depositing User: Stefan Köstenbauer
Date Deposited: 18 Apr 2008 14:41
Last Modified: 08 Sep 2011 18:52

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